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NR: When supply meets demand recovery slowing, continue to see rubber prices rose 70%

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NR: When supply meets demand recovery slowing, continue to see rubber prices rose 70%

Release date:2015-05-13 00:00 source: Views:

        Since the three countries since the implementation of joint policies to limit production, domestic natural rubber prices by 9600 yuan / ton up to 12,600 yuan / ton, an increase of 31.25%. At this stage, we believe that the new marginal factor support rubber prices appear - phased recovery of the Chinese economy; we continue to look at the overall 70 percent rise in rubber prices.

 

        Macro level, China's economic recovery will boost global rubber consumption to varying degrees. By the government to strengthen the impact of industrialization and infrastructure stimulus, China's economic recovery in 2016, PMI index in March reached 50.2%, above-scale industrial added value up 1.2pct upgrade to 6.8%. China accounted for 40 percent of global rubber consumption in China under the background of economic upturn, rubber demand will grow to varying degrees.

 

        Rubber demand meso level: China's auto market rebound driven by increased demand for tires. By the government for industrial and infrastructure construction to strengthen the impact of stimulation, car sales rose significantly in March vehicle production rose 8.9%. Breakdown of view, the domestic heavy truck sales in March increased by 10.4% over last year; passenger car sales increased 9.76%. We judge, under the vehicle purchase tax cut policy and the economic recovery in the context, in the second quarter car sales data still look good.

 

        Rubber demand micro level: improvement in tire business started supporting rubber industry for the better. As of last week, steel and semi-steel tire tire business enterprises operating rates were 71.3%, 75.8%, representing an increase of 2.13% over the same period last year, respectively, 4.48%. We judge that as China's economy to pick up in the second quarter, lower tire operating rate will continue to rise to maintain the tire companies replenishment demand will push up demand for natural rubber increased growth.

 

        Supply perspective, we determine the future of rubber tight supply situation will persist for three reasons:

        1) in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the total natural rubber production accounts for the proportion of global output up to 60%, the proportion of exports of the three countries and the total amount accounted for the major exporting countries is as high as 86%. Tripartite Rubber Council-wide plan from March to implement export reduction plan, expected 3 - reduce exports 615,000 tons within eight months, and since March has not significantly reduced production and exports, the latter is expected to supply contraction amplitude than expected;

        2) After the March main rubber producing countries have moved into the rubber stop cutting period, the window period during the period itself is supplied;

        3) tapping rubber farmers are not enthusiastic, limited rubber production.



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